Impact of Roseville and Rocklin Population Growth on Crime Rate

Perceptions distorted by cable news, social media, & propaganda

Roseville, Calif. – Turn on cable news or click on social media and it quickly becomes apparent that every crime and misdeed gets amplified to maximum effect in the digital age. One might believe the prevalence of crime is bad everywhere.

Fear and dread helps keep users tuned in and logged on while generating clicks and profits in the process. For many, it presents a widely distorted view that their community is becoming overrun by crime when the opposite is true. The old news maxim “if it bleeds, it leads” is used to full effect to keep viewers in a state of worry and fear, facts be damned.

In South Placer County, it’s not uncommon to hear people regularly decry the rise of crime as the population grows. How does the data from our local enforcement agencies compare to what many perceive when it comes to local crime? Decades of data collection from our local law enforcement agencies provide some clarity. The odds of being a victim of both property crime or violent crime are lower today than 30-40 years ago, when the population of South Placer was was just a fraction of what it is today. Let that sink in.

Roseville, a safer community

On a per capita basis, Roseville’s property crime rate and violent crime rate has actually plummeted while the city has nearly tripled in size. This is according to publicly available data published by the Roseville Police Department. In 1995, the violent crime rate in Roseville stood at 515, in 2021 the violent crime rate is estimated at ~166. Property crime rate in 1995 is listed at 5158, fast forward to 2021 and the rate is down nearly 70 percent to an estimated ~1864. As the population soars, odds of becoming a victim of crime have plummeted. Read the full Roseville PD crime report below.

Rocklin, safer now than 1980

The same trend appears in the Rocklin Police Department annual reports (pdf). Population growth has reduced residents odds of becoming a victim of crime. Rocklin residents had higher odds of being a victim of crime in 1980 than they do today, according to Uniform Crime Reports. Check out the chart below from Rocklin PD 2021 annual report which shows data from 2005 through 2021.

Live, work, & play

There are many challenges of growth and not all may be viewed as positive. However, when it comes to the crime rate in South Placer County, the data has shown that the explosive growth experienced has not had a negative impact on the actual crime rate. Quite to the contrary, residents’ safety odds have improved dramatically and that’s terrific news for our communities and business environment!

So, the next time you turn on cable news, social media or hear propaganda on local crime, take note on the long term trend of declining crime rates. It’s just another reason why Placer County is an incredible place to live, work, and play.
Welcome to the brighter side!

Roseville 2021 Summary